UniCredit: Romania May Draw IMF Money In 2012
Romania is likely to draw funds from its precautionary loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund in 2012 because of scarce capital inflows, while other countries in central and eastern Europe are bound to rely on IMF help as well, Italy’s UniCredit said in a report Thursday.
“We expect Serbia and Romania to press ahead with their precautionary programs over the course of next year, with Romania to draw funding from this and potentially request an increase in the size of the program,” UniCredit said in its latest CEE quarterly report.
The Italian bank revised down its forecast on Romanian growth to 1.4% in 2012, from 2.5% previously, saying it expects agriculture to affect growth in the second half through a base effect. The growth forecast for 2013 was also cut to 2.5%, from 3.1%.
UniCredit said Romania’s 2012 budget deficit target of 1.9% of the gross domestic product looks ambitious and difficult to finance at “reasonable costs.” The bank estimates a budget gap of 2.5% of GDP, financed by drawing EUR2.5 billion from the IMF and the World Bank.
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Cristina Roșca
